Hot Topics »
 

41 Comments

  • John One year ago

    Those giys sound uneducated and you act like an idiot for your age. Tongue flickering? What the hell is wrong with you.

    • Sum Yung Guy One year ago

      “John” - If you are going to insult people and call them “idiots” and “uneducated,” then you MUST make sure your spelling is CORRECT.

      “… Those ‘giys’ …” … ???

      What the hell is wrong with you?

      (Notice, John - finish a question with a question mark !!!)

      And for the record - George Soros, Warren Buffet and Mark Mobius are all compulsive tongue flickers. It hasn’t hurt them at all.

      • Broker A One year ago

        Those guys use computers.

        • Max Zeledon One year ago

          Sounds like a quant fund to me, Howard. Hmm. I don’t trust computer-based models = final decision to buy or sell is made by a mathematical model. Some big time hedge funds are still saying Ouch! Even neutral trading models got killed.

          I love the comment on WallStrip stocks (most are too high to buy). They called you on it! Good stuff.

          • Richard One year ago

            The 20 page report looks a lot like Van Tharp’s stuff. What always gets me about these studies is the comparison against the S&P500. I’d like to see a test against the S&P using the S&P.

            • Mos Def One year ago

              Richard-

              In the most recent edition of Van Tharp’s excellent book “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom” you will find a few pages dedicated to Blackstar’s research.

              I have seen their studies benchmarked against different markets (small cap, mid cap, growth, value, blends, etc.. , the Blackstar results are superior in every way.

              • Richard One year ago

                Thanks Mos Def, but this report is inferior to what little I’ve read of Van Tharp. I will concede these guys did go out of their way in pointing out data mining flaws, but my sixth sense is telling me this is a scam.

                • maximo zeledon One year ago

                  Good point Richard!

                  I just read the report and it’s not even close to being a scientific study. Outliers are misleading and in most samplings of data, some data points will be further away from their expected values than what is deemed reasonable. This can be due to systematic error, faults in the theory that generated the expected values, or it can simply be the case that some observations happen to be a long way from the center of the data.

                  Outlier points can therefore indicate faulty data, erroneous procedures, or areas where a certain theory might not be valid.

                  And what is a significant return?

                  • Richard One year ago

                    Maximo: Any discussion of, ‘Significant Return’ would be extremely subjective requiring kegs and kegs of beer to resolve.

                    • Mos Def One year ago

                      Richard -

                      Blackstar clients are known to include high profile investors, including a Market Wizard profiled by Jack Schwager.

                      Do a little due diligence before you start casting stones. These guys manage millions of dollars and have an excellent multi year track record.

                      • howard lindzon One year ago

                        richard - basically you are calling me a scammer so thanks.

                        I have worked side by side with these guys in the trenches for years and if they were going to scam anybpdy it would have been me.

                        Everybody wants some complicated way to make money. They lay out a simple long only plan and you call it a scam.

                        If they were going to blow up, it would have shown itself in the credit crunch. Instead, they reduce risk while the ’scam’ hedge funds that don’t know what they own, blow up.

                        Van Tharp paved some ways, but growth comes from building on things.

                        If you want to comment here, dont be a putz.

                        • howard lindzon One year ago

                          Broker A - funny as usual

                          maximo - not everyone that manges money using computers is a quant fund. Come on man…

                          • Richard One year ago

                            Thanks for the scolding Howard.

                            • Broker A One year ago

                              Howard:

                              I’m putting together some brochures for my soon to be launched hedge fund.

                              My questions to you and others here is:

                              A. Should I let my investors know I utilize a plutonium powered time machine, in order to get my stock picks?

                              B. Should I disclose that I hire magicians to run trades for me? I tell those fuckers to make my losses disappear. And it works!

                              True Story.

                              Fucktarded Finance coming soon. Get some while it’s hot.

                              • howard lindzon One year ago

                                I prefer the AssHat short only fund:

                                “We will be right one day and celebrate the world’s riches…alone on earth”

                                • Richard One year ago

                                  Broker A: May I infer you find the report questionable?

                                  • Max Zeledon One year ago

                                    Point taken, Howard. Regardless of what we use the challenge is in formulating the exit strategies more so than the actual selection of the stock (although an upward trend can reverse quickly in the oppositie direction and hurt you). But good software is out there to help you identify appropriate entry points based on expotential moving averages, etc.

                                    I’ve been reading a bit more on momentum trading and the maximum profit philosophy is quite interesting to me, but this is where machines can help I suppose–predicting or reacting to reversals in order to protect gains or to cut losses by selling a (or cover) positions automatically. I don’t doubt this guys are good at what they do…I just don’t think that paper explains it well, but that may very well be the point.

                                    • Mos Def One year ago

                                      Maximo -

                                      By your logic the shareholders of TSBI, FSLR,BSCI, and CROX will be horrified to learn that their profits were simply due to a data or procedure error in their brokerage statement. Wow, there sure are going to be a lot of pissed off people on Monday when brokers across the country apply the “Maximo Pricing Model” to adjust for obvious “outliers” due to data errors. I’m glad you pointed this out though because the margin calls on my short positions in those stocks were really becoming a problem for me. I going to call my broker right now and resolve these data and procedure errors fixed.

                                      • Richard One year ago

                                        Mos Def:

                                        I believe Maximo’s point to be, ‘Outliers are possible but not probable’. If there is a significant quantity of outliers then the data, algorithm, and or conclusion are questionable. Your point is not clear to me. Are you familiar with Chi-squared?

                                        • Richard One year ago

                                          Page 11, Conclusions: “… a 10 ATR trailing stop would have yielded a significant return on average.”
                                          Page 13 Annual Compounded Return 19.3%; S&P500 12.0%.

                                          Maximo, make that three kegs of beer. Good night gentleman and lurking ladies.

                                          • Max Zeledon One year ago

                                            Mos Def :

                                            You missed my point entirely, man.

                                            Richard: You got the point I was trying to make.

                                            Remember tazer? you guys gotta watch this:

                                            http://www.break.com/index/tazed_while_shotgunnning_beer.html

                                            • Broker A One year ago

                                              Richard:

                                              “The Fly” doesn’t have time to read the reports of his competition. He is far too busy scheming up ways to eliminate their facial hair.

                                              On a side note, my funds name will be:

                                              Boner Holdings: ‘because our shit goes up, son.’

                                              Any early investors?

                                              Any?

                                              • Mos Def One year ago

                                                Maximo and Richard -

                                                Guys, we talking about time series analysis not the average size of the American male penis.

                                                Look, your statistics 101 class and its methods of analysis is fine for the natural sciences but it is not applicable to time series dominated by wild randomness. Just ask an electrical engineer or hurricane forecaster about their modeling techniques and you will find a very different method than a geologist. Stocks are dominated by wild randomness and there is far more return variance inside the market averages than think. You guys are falling into the same trap that every academic or classical engineer makes when evaluating financial time series with classical statistics. Also, didn’t you read the portfolio size? They generated their 19.3% average return holding a portfolio of many hundreds and often thousands of stocks. On average their portfolio is more diversified than the S&P 500, so any outliers only account for a small fraction of the portfolio performance. The S&P 500 index benefits from outliers far more than the Blackstar portfolio since it systematically overweights its holdings and is far less diversified than this papers strategy.

                                                I’m sorry but the methods you are using to question this paper are flawed. You may disagree, but that does not make you correct.

                                                Also, this paper was not published in an academic journal for peer review with full disclosure. They are not trying to prove anything in the paper or show statistical significance. I mean do you really expect a successful hedge fund to just hand over their trade secrets. Honestly I’m surprised they even published this paper. What benefit could it possibly bring them?

                                                • Mos Def One year ago

                                                  Maximo-

                                                  Here is your “scientific” study with additional empirical evidence that buying new highs is a profitable strategy with an edge…… This paper was published in the Journal of Finance in 2004

                                                  http://www.bauer.uh.edu/TGeorge/papers/gh4-paper.pdf

                                                  • maximo zeledon One year ago

                                                    Again Mos Def:

                                                    You’re having a different conversation, man. I love when you say “You guys are falling into the same trap that every academic or classical engineer makes when evaluating financial time series with classical statistics.”

                                                    I never did such thing. The study itself did it–it in their data, so read it first before you make a comment like that because it makes you look insecure and petty.

                                                    And I also read Gleick and chaos theory, so don’t tell me about the randomness of the stock market.

                                                    • Mos Def One year ago

                                                      Maximo-

                                                      I’m done with this argument, it’s boring.

                                                      (and I have to get to the recording studio to lay down some new beats for by upcoming album)

                                                      Keep bashing things you don’t understand, it’s a successful life strategy. Works for Warren Buffett, right?

                                                      Good luck….

                                                      • Richard One year ago

                                                        Mos Def –

                                                        My position in this conversation is the article set off my scam alert primarily because it’s impractical.

                                                        You stated my methods are flawed. Please use your methods in answering the following.

                                                        Question: On 8/17/07 BRKA qualified by making a new all time high. How many shares did you buy on the open of the next day?

                                                        Question: What lot size was used? Did they use a fix dollar amount or fixed share quantity? Does lot size matter?

                                                        Question: What portfolio size would be required? Does portfolio size matter?

                                                        Question: You stated, “They are not trying to prove anything in the paper or show statistical significance.” Why then does the title end in a question mark and the article contain a conclusion?

                                                        Question: Tongue flickering, how do you interpret that? As something juicy or new? The date of the article is 2005.

                                                        Broker A –
                                                        Are you really, “The Fly”? Wow! I’m a fan. Love your word, “Fucktard” It should be in Wikipedia. Sorry I missed the intent of your post. I thought it was a comment regarding the document, “Does Trend Following Work on stocks?” Question, do you really have a plutonium powered time machine? I don’t understand the need to hire magicians.

                                                        Mos Def –
                                                        I did do due diligence. Please google Blackstar funds LLC and tell me what you come up with. Also, the document doesn’t contain a http://WWW.

                                                        Re: Randomness
                                                        Actually there isn’t anything called randomness, just probabilities.

                                                        Gentlemen and Lurking Ladies, is there anyway we can focus this conversation on the practicality of trading systems?

                                                        • Broker A One year ago

                                                          Richard:

                                                          On days, like Friday, I have my magicians do tricks, like make the rookie brokers computer disappear or phone, while in use.

                                                          Trust me when I say, their salary is well worth it.

                                                          • Soren One year ago

                                                            @maximo:

                                                            “Sounds like a quant fund to me, Howard. Hmm. I don’t trust computer-based models = final decision to buy or sell is made by a mathematical model. Some big time hedge funds are still saying Ouch! Even neutral trading models got killed.”

                                                            I can’t tell if your being sarcastic or not. However, its worth pointing out that while the media was all over the supposed “death of quant funds” in August, pretty much every single fund that was down during that week in August finished with positive gains.

                                                            This isn’t to say that quant funds are any better or worse that any other type of fund, but to say a fund is garbage just because its uses quantitative analysis is just plain silly.

                                                            • francine hardaway One year ago

                                                              Hey guys, I hate to interrupt this discussion about the size of your penis/hedge fund, but we are holding the Second Annual Arizona Entrepreneurship Conference on Nov. 8, and we need you guys with the bucks to come see the Arizona success stories. http://www.azentrepreneurship.com.Howard, help me here!

                                                              • howard lindzon One year ago

                                                                see what I can do francine. will be in new york. Blackstar should show though and i will talk to our other portfolio companies.

                                                                • maximo zeledon One year ago

                                                                  Soren:
                                                                  I was being a bit sarcastic. But I didn’t mean to insult anyone. And my intention was not to bash the study as mos def suggested. Is it a crime to question something? To ask questions about the validity of something, particularly when you are trying to learn?

                                                                  I just wanted clarification as to the overall significant of the outliers. The study does indeed provide enough data points where outliers should not have a strong influence, but no one came forward to expand on this. Usually, you worry about outliers when the sample size is small, which is not the case here. What happens at the portfolio level like the authors suugest?

                                                                  • howard lindzon One year ago

                                                                    Just email the Blackstar guys directly people.

                                                                    As positions increase in a good market, it seems pretty obvious that outlier events to your portfoio will increase, but not necessarily as a percentage. You will also get outlier events in your favor as big moves often happen in the direction of the trend as we are seeing with mergers.

                                                                    I am only down on funds that show me smooth returns. I dont expect to get 12plus percent without risk.

                                                                    It’s common sense.

                                                                    • Richard One year ago

                                                                      Maximo –

                                                                      Focus on expectancy not outliers. Howard trades stocks that are making higher highs. Howard expects the stocks to go up. Why does Howard expect these stocks to go up? How would you go about minimizing the effect of negative outliers? Use stops and only employ bullish plays on bullish stocks and bearish plays on bearish stocks. Why would you use a bullish play on a stock in a down trend? Does that increase or decrease the possibility of a negative outlier? As Howard said, “It’s common sense”. The hard part is the discipline.

                                                                      How would you go about increasing the possibility of a positive outlier? Note: probability can only be determined on data. It maybe possible but only the data will give me the probability.

                                                                      I hope that helped.

                                                                      I have to go to the grocery store. I’m out of peanut butter and celery.

                                                                      • maximo zeledon One year ago

                                                                        Thanks Richard. I framed some of my concerns the wrong way, too. The only thing I was questioning was the size of the data. 8,000 stocks! WIth a sample size that big you will find all kinds of significance. I guess it is a purely academic question on my part since I don’t have the means to set up an account of that magnitude–which is the only way it would work really on a consistant basis. Their data sample is so freaking large that the negative outliers mean nothing. The real question is whether this would work on a portfolio scale…and I mean 5-10 positions. I think I would get killed, or maybe not? Thank you for the input. Perhaps I will write to this guys this week as Howard suggested, I’m certainly deeply intrigued by it.

                                                                        • Richard One year ago

                                                                          Maximo –

                                                                          What ever you do don’t mention my name. I wrote them earlier and totally pissed them and Howard off. Oh well, I’m history.

                                                                          You are very close to understanding expectancy. You are right on by realizing the size of portfolio required to duplicate their results, but don’t let that get you down. You can do it, I did it. Be disciplined to use common sense. Be patient, go slow, keep it simple. Let the stock talk to you. Don’t talk to it. If you’ve got charting software plot the price MACD % in green and volume MACD % in red. Look at when price and volume are going up at the same time. The formulas are: ((10smac-20smac)/ 20smac) green; ((10smav-20smav)/20smav) red. The stock will be in one of four phases. 1. price dn, volume dn; 2. price dn, volume up; 3. price up, volume up; 4. price up, volume dn. If price and volume are down try to guess what’s going to happen next. It’s be one of the other three. See how simple that is, you’ve just eliminated one outlier.

                                                                          I’ve enjoyed it. I wish you the best.

                                                                          • Richard One year ago

                                                                            Maximo -

                                                                            Almost forgot. Take a look at CRNT. It’s price and volume are low. It’s been hugging the 50.

                                                                            Now I’m history.

                                                                            • Dogwood One year ago

                                                                              Maximo,

                                                                              You can scale most trend following strategies to your account size, you just use smaller position sizes and/or lower risk levels, i.e. risk .5 percent per trade instead of 1 percent.

                                                                              I use a volatility-based position sizing formula that is slightly modified from the one used by the Turtle Traders and it works well for a small account of $30,000, and another account of $70,000. The Turtles used it to great effect trading millions.

                                                                              Just keep your losses small, your winners bigger than the losers, then scale up your position size as your account balance grows.

                                                                              • jim One year ago

                                                                                exactly dogwood. trend trading can be done with any size now that commissions are so low for stocks

                                                                                • coldess One year ago

                                                                                  ONLINE - DRUGSTORE!
                                                                                  PRICES of ALL MEDICINES!

                                                                                  FIND THAT NECESSARY…
                                                                                  VIAGRA, CIALIS, PHENTERMINE, SOMA… and other pills!

                                                                                  Welcome please: pills-prices.blogspot.com

                                                                                  NEW INFORMATION ABOUT PAYDAY LOANS!

                                                                                  Welcome please: payday-d-loans.blogspot.com

                                                                                  GOOD LUCK!

                                                                                  • washington national life insurance final expense life insurance 4 months ago

                                                                                    I used this site to get information for that i had in my class. This is an excellent site for this information :)

                                                                                    Leave a Reply